I think the first one is by far the worse, but I don’t believe we’ll see that. Most likely, a bunch of startups will fail, some will consolidate or merge with big tech, and we’ll move on. The good part of the tech will remain. Some people will be hurt along the way, no doubt, and that sucks. But nothing civilization-shattering.
Thankfully, when we have a lot of pessimists, the bubble deflates better. The market and investments are already pricing in that risk. It would worry me if there were no chorus of pessimists. That's when bubbles pop.
Even if AGI doesn’t happen, the facilities that current AI can provide will (soon) give us tolerably good Agents, built quickly. Today I saw a run thru of the platform AWS are providing. I’m sure Microsoft will do something similar. It will take time to land, but cash will flow from many corporations and governments. Will there probably be a ‘correction’ in the markets (crash) at some point, but not a winter.
I think the next hype cycle is consciousness - you heard it here first 😄
I dunno which is worse: AGI succeeds so all the money goes to the few super rich who own them, nobody else can earn money so money becomes worthless.
Or AGI fails and all that investment is wiped out so all the big businesses go bankrupt and money becomes worthless.
(I may be oversimplifying!)
I think the first one is by far the worse, but I don’t believe we’ll see that. Most likely, a bunch of startups will fail, some will consolidate or merge with big tech, and we’ll move on. The good part of the tech will remain. Some people will be hurt along the way, no doubt, and that sucks. But nothing civilization-shattering.
Thankfully, when we have a lot of pessimists, the bubble deflates better. The market and investments are already pricing in that risk. It would worry me if there were no chorus of pessimists. That's when bubbles pop.
Even if AGI doesn’t happen, the facilities that current AI can provide will (soon) give us tolerably good Agents, built quickly. Today I saw a run thru of the platform AWS are providing. I’m sure Microsoft will do something similar. It will take time to land, but cash will flow from many corporations and governments. Will there probably be a ‘correction’ in the markets (crash) at some point, but not a winter.
I think the next hype cycle is consciousness - you heard it here first 😄
Consciousness as a Service will be one thing to behold!
LOL - There are some days…